Hades Behind a Palin Horse

What you're about to read is very serious. Seriously. You be the judge.

First, for those of you trying to recall the “pale horse” reference in the title, it’s from Revelations 6:8. I heartily recommend http://www.biblegateway.com as a resource to verify scriptural references and wording.

John McCain has demonstrated courage, integrity and patriotism beyond the ability of any human being to question. If he were a Democrat, Karl Rove himself would not dare to challenge him on those traits. (That could be funny for several reasons, but I’m still serious.) No other presidential candidate except George Washington has demonstrated these traits so indisputably, and he is the only candidate I admire more that McCain for such demonstration. Obama will never demonstrate these traits to the degree McCain has. Whatever you think of Obama he simply will never have the opportunity to achieve the nobility that McCain lived out on the filthy floor of the Hanoi Hilton.

Courage, integrity, and patriotism demand that you choose a vice presidential candidate who, to the best of your judgment, will be an excellent president should you become unavailable. Of course, every candidate since the 12th Amendment made it a choice has chosen, instead, whatever VP candidate will bring the most votes to the ticket. Their courage, integrity and patriotism demand getting elected. It’s OK to risk sticking the nation with a question mark as president, just as long as he or she is a popular question mark. Obama is a fortunate exception. His ability is challenged so extensively that choosing a VP with presidential abilities and getting more votes are one and the same. (No, still not joking.)

Whatever you, I or anybody else thinks of Sarah Palin, there is one thing that nobody can think of her. She is not, out of all the choices available to McCain, the person likely above all others to be an outstanding president in his absence. There is no doubt whatsoever that he handed the nation a question mark because he thought it would get him more votes.

I don’t know how to reconcile the John McCain who chose Sarah Palin with the John McCain I consider second only to George Washington in his demonstration of courage, integrity and patriotism. People do change. If the McCain running for president is no longer the McCain of the Hanoi Hilton, that scares me worse than anything you can tell me about Sarah Palin.

OK, the seriousness warning is now suspended. It might scare me worse if Palin were, to paraphrase a former governor of Louisiana, “…caught in bed with a live girl or a dead boy.” Perhaps you saw the recent headline “Edwards admits affair, denies paternity.”
Do you know that my first reaction was “Incredible! The guy is in prison and 81 years old. How does he have the opportunity or the energy?” Then I realized they were talking about John, not Edwin.
Some of you didn’t live in Louisiana in the last thirty years of the 20th century, and therefore missed out on the ultimate unification of politics and entertainment in the person of Edwin Edwards. I recommend “The Last Hayride” by John Maginnis

With apologies to Matt Damon, the actuarial odds don’t seem to be 1 in 3 that McCain will kick the bucket (or hand it to Sarah) before the end of one term. I’ve seen estimates all the way from 9% to 33% that an average guy of his age will die of natural causes by then. It all depends on the assumptions you make, but who cares? Whatever he is he is NOT an average guy.

Eight presidents have died in office, by the way; four or five of them by assassination. (There’s some dispute about Harding.) The three who definitely died of natural causes were all 63-68 years of age. Since MCain is older than 68, a simple experience-based estimate yields a zero probability of him dying in office, excluding foul play. Oddly, this is unaffected if he loses the election – there will still be a zero probability of his dying in office.

A note to the women of our country: all great ideas have their time. Be grateful that Bill Clinton didn’t choose a young, good looking woman as his running mate.